昨天一个有广东腔的男子给我打电话，他让我猜他是谁。我半天也没猜出来，就想我认识的广东人只有许超群了，我的大学同学。于是我就提了他，他说我猜对了，说要明天飞到北京，想一起跟我吃个中午饭。我就答应了。由于毕业以后再也没见过超群，我就问他的口音怎么变成这么广东味，他说经常跟广东客户打交道，就变成这样了。那时天真的我，还没意识到我自己上当了。

 

后来和老婆说起这事，她马上就意识到我被骗了。她说最近这种事情特别多。我一回想，还真是什么信息都是我来透露的，他就是在那里随我说的附和着。为了确定他不是超群，我特意要来了超群的电话，拨通后就证实了，确实他没打过。有趣的是超群说前几天他也收到过类似的电话。我想这群人太嚣张了吧，在奥运期间如此大范围行骗！这人现在虽然还没跟我要钱，但是他肯定会跟我再联系得。于是我下定决心要陪他玩一玩。我要来个将计就计。

 

今天早上他果然打来电话，说他可能中午不能跟我吃饭了。我就假惺惺的问“怎么了？没事吧？”他就唉声叹气起来，说他昨晚在石家庄夜总会找小姐被警察抓了，可能需要耽误一些时间。我就等着他提借钱的事情，可是他还挺耐心，没马上要钱。我就顺势说“那等你处理完事情再给我打电话吧!”他说没问题，就挂了。我心想，老子有的是耐心陪你玩。

 

过了一个小时，他就又打来电话，这回开口要钱了。说一个人要5000，一共6个人是3万。说他把钱放在行李里寄存在酒店了，只有本人才能提取。问我能不能先给他垫付一下，等他出来后马上到酒店拿上钱就来找我。我就装犹豫，说借那么多啊，我得考虑一下。然后他就开始求情，后来我就答应他了。他就迫不及待问我用什么银行卡，我就急中生智说我从邮局汇钱最方便，让他把详细地址给我，还有姓名，这样钱才能汇到。主要是想有了地址报警，警察有地方能抓他。

 

没过一会儿他给我发来了短信，留了一个中国邮政广州支行的帐户和姓名。然后他马上就给我打电话，问我收到没有。我说汇到广州你在石家庄能拿到钱吗？他就支支吾吾地说能，说什么他朋友可以给他把钱转到。（这种伎俩太弱智了吧！谁信啊!）我就装傻答应了。他还千叮咛万嘱咐说汇完了钱一定给他打电话。我说欧了。

 

拿到了这些信息，我就报警了，还没等我说完情况，警察就问“他是说他找小姐被抓了吧？”看来他们也没啥技术含量，不知道跟多少人用过了。我说我痛恨这些骗子，愿意协助警方把这些人抓获。警察却说不用了，把电话给他们就行，还警告我说不要再理他们，否则可能遭到他们报复，一天收到一万条短信什么的。

 

我还是觉得不够过瘾，总是想亲自做点什么惩治他们一下。他要是真想花1000元发短信报复我，我也认了，反正我最近正考虑要换手机号呢。于是在天涯上发了个帖子，征求网友意见，没想到这个贴子没通过审查给直接删了！！我这是何罪之有啊！那个人现在还等我给他汇钱呢，大家给我出出主意，怎么治治这个王八蛋！！

１４号中国惜败给西班牙，只看了几眼被逼平到加时赛的电视转播画面，我就已经感觉非常郁闷了。大好的形势下把球给输了，这种感觉比大比分落败还要气愤。还好把票让给了姐，否则真的临场看到中国男篮这么憋屈的比赛，肯定让自己难受半天。苦了我老婆的强烈爱国心，居然哭了起来。

本以外中国男篮出线已经无望，我才意识到每组一共有六只球队而并非四只，因此输给本组实力最强的两个球队并不能阻挡中国进入八强的道路。于是花了点时间研究了一下，身在Ｂ组的中国男篮目前面临的形势，发现在已经胜了安哥拉的情况下，只要打赢德国，哪怕输给希腊也还是有机会进入八强的。


从这个对阵图可以看出，只要中国能排在德国和安哥拉前面，中国将可以进入八强。假设安哥拉接下来一场都不会赢，那么德国剩下的两场比赛一个是对美国一个是对中国。只要美国不放水（为了梦八队的荣誉他们应该不会），只要中国能拼掉德国，就算是输给了希腊，由于跟德国积分一样但是相互交手成绩为赢，那么中国至少可以列小组第四出线了。站稳了小组第四出线的脚跟，再力争拼掉希腊（可能有点费劲），那么以小组第三的身份出线则更好。

但是要想进入四强，看来一定要超水平发挥了。从现在的形势来看，立陶宛应该和美国差不多为小组第一。如果中国队拿到Ｂ组第四，则要面对立陶宛。如果中国拿到Ｂ组第三，则要面对Ａ组第二，有可能是克罗地亚或者是阿根廷，两队都是强队。历届奥运会中国男篮最好的成绩也就是八强了，看来中国男篮突破历史、闯进四强的道路充满荆棘啊．．．


从现在来看，只寄希望于１６号能干掉德国了。很幸运的拿到了那天的球票，虽然是全场倒数第二排，我一定要中国队队员听到我的声音，拼了！中国队加油！

 

欢迎大家去看看

中国的股市现在真的是疯了，今年早些时候由于格林斯潘在香港发表了一番担忧中国金融系统的讲话，上证指数大跌，几天之内市值跌了将近10%，害的美国和全世界的股市都跟着感冒。这才刚刚过了3个多月，上证指数就创历史新高了，比3个月前涨了52%。甭管证监会扯破嗓子警告基金公司不准招揽顾客，甭管央行行长再怎么升息给股市降温，大家根本不理，反而炒股得更多（据说上周一周末就新开了几十万个股票账户）。今天刚听说格林斯潘又发话说中国股市的高涨局面“clearly unsustainable”，道琼斯工业指马上就以下跌收盘，不知道中国股民在今天醒来听说这个消息后，会不会恐慌的相继斩仓。如果大家纷纷这样做，崩盘又是不可避免了。高格林斯潘这个老贼，本不再担任美联储主席，可是他的一句话为啥就这么有分量呢？如果以后央行再想做宏观调控，应该直接考虑给格林斯潘塞红包，什么调整利率呀、公开市场业务呀都没这个好使。

 

中国股市为啥这么疯狂呢？理性人的假设如果真要成立，就意味着中国股市这么牛就是应该的，国家经济发展越来越快了，上市公司业绩越来越好了。可是如果真是这样的话，为啥一个退休老头子的一句话就可以让股市感冒好几天？想不明白了，还是看看这次大家有没有被他吓到再说吧...如果大家又开始抛，我就要和崔同学一样皈依behavioral finance了。

经历了将近半年的折腾，在辗转反复、患得患失之后，终于决定义无反顾地接受中央财经大学的offer，今年8月就可以开始任教了。SB的兄弟姐妹们，我走之前一定要请大家吃饭；祖国的兄弟姐妹们，我回来了！

 

做选择真的不是一件容易的事情，特别是在有很多机会的时候，选择一个就意味着放弃其他。做完选择回头才发现，其实自己早就先在心里接受一个选择了，后来都在不停的为这个选择找借口。接受了多年的经济学教育，还是没有办法让自己真正理性起来。有些事情有些问题上，还是跟着感觉走吧，问题也变得没有那么复杂了。

 

心的方向，就在北京。

***

Dear friends, I have officially accepted the offer from Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, China, and will become an assistant professor starting as early as this August. You are welcome to visit me in Beijing in the future. I promise that I will be an excellent host.

今天又是一年一度的Super Bowl，简直是美国的一大主要体育文化盛事，说白了其实就是职业橄榄球联赛的决赛，可是用万人空巷来形容一点都不夸张。收视率这么高，难怪很多公司都要斥巨资抢做电视广告，而且好像都不重播，所以每年都有一些经典广告在网络上流传，再加上众多娱乐明星在中场休息时的精彩演出，使得这个一年一度的赛事演变成了一个全国的节日，和我们的春节晚会有一拼。据说美国人因为看这个体育盛事的食品消费量仅次于感恩节的消费量位居第二。难怪足球在美国难得一席之地，橄榄球这么深入人心，就算是贝克汉姆来了，一个人估计还是改不了这个文化。球王贝利当年来了美国踢球，也没有能挽救足球在美国的命运。我们这些在美国的外国人，对这个赛事是看不看都无所谓的态度，所以下午在学校体育馆里锻炼时，看到的几乎都是留学生。头一次健身房里这么少人，真是爽啊...

 

 

 

2. 8月份就要开始看招聘信息。对于学金融的兄弟姐妹们，准备的时间要提前至少两个月，要特别注意这个网站：

http://www.fma.org/PhD/ Financial Management Association International

这是个经常被经济学phd忽略的网站。很多学校的商学院都在这个组织的年会上面试候选人，但是由于这个学会的年会要比美国经济学会的早很多（一般在每年的10月份），所以很多公司或者学校的商学院从每年6、7月份开始就在Financial Economics Network 或者是这个学会的网站贴出招聘信息了。所以学金融的兄弟姐妹们如果不想错过申请商学院的机会，就要在6、7月份就开始注意这两个网站的招聘信息，8月底之前把自己的申请材料准备好，最晚不能超过9月上旬寄出去，这样才能会被考虑。而美国经济学会的招聘周期要比这个学会的晚，因此整个申请的周期也要比金融的晚很多。我们今年由于不知道这个信息，失去很多机会，希望大家不要重蹈我们的覆辙。

对经济学Phd来说，主要的信息渠道是下面几个：

http://www.aeaweb.org/joe/ American Economic Association

http://www.ssrn.com/update/ern/index.html Economics Research Network

 

 

 

这是一个免费的网站，你创建自己的一个账户，标明自己拥有的所有技能，然后你的信息会被存入他们的数据库中。用人单位也会建立他们的账户，标明他们需要的所有技能，如果你的和他们的一致的话，你的名字就会出现在他们的搜索结果中，然后他们就很有可能联系你，要求面试。我有几个面试就是这样联系上的，不过这个网站一般都被Indusry的公司所熟知，学校并不怎么常用。关于怎样在这个网站建立帐户，请看这个guide: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/AEA/Annual_Meeting/pdfs/2007_Placement.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

田土港大故地重游，双城的土人们快去灌水啊

想陪你好好走一段路
记忆才能够深刻的伫足
画面可以是灰色的荧幕
时间停在我们的当初

希望你也有好的归宿
卸下我以为是我的包袱
我想要祝福却变成嫉妒
我真的真的不愿意认输

我以为这个冬天
你还用得到我的拥抱
我以为这个错误
只要两个人不说就好
我想你应该知道
谁到不是这出戏的主角
我想你应该会说既然爱过......

我以为这个冬天
你还用得到我的拥抱
我以为这个错误
只要两个人不说就好
我想你应该知道
谁都不是这出戏的主角
我想你应该会说既然爱过......就好

这届世界杯的八强已经产生了，都没有太大的意外。至于四强嘛，我觉得是德国、意大利、葡萄牙和巴西。葡萄牙赢英格兰的可能性很大，英格兰没有什么特点，典型的长传冲吊，队员带球都没有什么信心，看英格兰的比赛比较无聊，这种说法当然会冒犯贝克汉姆的铁杆球迷们，可是一个人在面临强队的时候就孤掌难鸣了；巴西简直就不用说了，他们这届简直太强了，新星加上名牌老将，他们捧杯也是理所应当的，而法国已经不比当年了，虽然奇达内和亨利等老将还在，可是新人却不及巴西的一半强，这下巴西人肯定憋足了劲等着一雪8年前的耻辱呢；意大利踢得不怎么好，但因为对乌克兰缺乏了解，我还是选意大利好了，不过由于意大利这届偏弱，他们的对手乌克兰成为黑马也不会让人惊讶的；四强赛里面最艰苦的比赛可能是德国和阿根廷的比赛了，我选德国队的原因不是说阿根廷很弱，而是我比较偏爱德国队，他们又有美洲球队的精湛脚法和短传渗透打法，又有欧洲球员高大威猛的身体，防守在我看来也很坚固。至于阿根廷嘛，也不是吃素的，就看周五的比赛谁更有运气了。

It is probably surprising to Americans when they learn that the most popular game in the planet is not the Superbowl, but the World Cup, which attracts a billion people! Football (that's right, we are not talking about American football) is the most popular game anywhere in the planet but America. In America, football is a girls game. Why hasn't football become popular in the US? The answers I found through searching the net and asking the American friends around me pretty much fall into one of the following categories:

 

1. Incentives of media promotion. Football does not have timeouts or commercial breaks. The media in the U.S. cannot profit for airing football games as much as they do for basketball and American football.

 

2. History and culture. Since American football, basketball and baseball have had a long history and done a pretty good job winning the audience, the room for new sport is limited. This also explains why we, as foreigners, are not so into American football or baseball, because football and basketball already occupy our heart.

 

3. Nature of the game. "Back and forth, nothing happens." This is a typical way for Americans to describe football. They don't like draw games either. There has to be a winning side. Also, "the major sports cover everything that soccer does, scoring in a net (NBA), physical roughness (NFL), hitting an object (MLB)." , as well put by someone on the web.  

 

4. Manipulation.  "Americans try to make it a girls sports so they can better market their American Football as a masculine sport."

 

I think 1 and 2 are the most important reasons. History made so popluar American football, a natural competitor to football. Then the media reinforced this. The media in the U.S. is more powerful in influencing audience's preference than other countries, where the media is usually controled or highly regulated by government. Some European countries, for example, require TV stations to inform the audience about the exact time and length of commercial breaks beforehand. This practice limits TV stations' commercial time, thereby limiting their ability of "teaching" the audience what to like. The US media, however, has a great deal of freedom. It is not uncommon to see a commercial break every 5 to 10 minutes. (I am personally so sick of this.) The TV stations end up airing only the shows and games that does not only attract audience, but are also profitable in airing commercials.

 

However, no matter how Americans hate football, this trend is becoming more and more unlikely to continue. With a huge degree of popularity worldwide and an increasing population of immigrants, football will eventually be recognized. The US media will realize that it will be still profitable airing football games. ABC for the first time will broadcast several World Cup games on Saturdays and Sundays live. ESPN will air all the games live. If the US men's football team does really well again in this World Cup as they did last time, then soon the heat of football is going to blow the whole planet without exceptions.

All bigots get diarrhea eventually

(alpha beta gamma delta epsilon)

Zorro ate the ice cap

(zeta eta theta iota kappa)

Let's munch nuts excessively, ok?

(lambda mu nu xi omicron)

Pigs really stink terribly

(pi rho sigma tau)

Under five chairs psychiatrists work.

(upsilon phi chi psi omega)

 

 

Use sunscreen. Especially in California!

 

Improve your english!

A video tape shows that three Portuguese were riding a car at night. When they picked up a stranger from the road, something freaky happened. The stranger claimed that she died in an accident in 1982. Then the camera turned to this stranger. Her face was freaky and seemed to be rotten. Rumor says that the car was crashed and all three people died. The video can be found here (viewers discretion strongly advised):

The discussion at some websites in Chinese is nonsense:

This video has been hotly debated in Hongkong and other places in China. I don't think it is real. They picked up the girl as if they knew she was there waiting. However, it is still entertaining to watch, like watching a free horror movie.

Today is the Cinco de Mayo(5th of May), a Mexican holiday that is celebrated for memorizing Mexican's defeat over France in the nineteenth century. But why is a Mexican holiday so popular in the U.S.? I don't understand this just as I don't understand why American celebrate the St. Patrick's Day, which is supposed to be an Irish holiday. One explanation seems to make sense. At the time the Unite States was in the Civil War with the Confederates, the victory of Mexicans deterred Napoleon III from supplying the Confederates rebel, and effectively won more time for the Unite States to form a strong army which beated the Confederates rebel at Gettysburg 14 months after May 5th. If the Mexicans hadn't won that battle, the French might have helped build a stronger army for the Confederates and we wouldn't have seen a united U.S. In this sense, Americans have a perfect reason to celebrate Cinco de Mayo. But the question now is, how many Americans know about this story?

The Mother's Day is on May 14th this year. Don't forget to express our love to our dear mums. Send some flowers or gifts. Though it is formality, it will make mums very happy. And they deserve it. I just ordered a bouquet of flowers and a cake on youzigift.com. They specialize in delivering gifts to China and other places in the world, highly recommended to people who are aboard. 

据美国高速公路安全管理署的最新调查显示，司机在开车时分神是造成交通事故的最主要罪魁祸首。虽然开车时打电话是最常见的开车分神，但却不是最主要的造成车祸的分神方式。获此殊荣的是开车时读书读报、化妆、吃喝和调汽车音响。这些方式的特征都是使司机的视线离开路面。由这些分神方式造成的交通事故占所有事故的80%!这是个很让人惊讶的数字，因为专家们对这个数字的估计只有25%。 --摘自《华尔街时报》

 

记得我唯一的一次追尾是在我和其他车里的人说笑话说得很开心的时候，还好当时是在堵车，所以速度没有多快，只是碰了一下。不过这个调查的结果显示这种分神造成事故绝对不是偶然。如果大家都能避免开车的时候做这些事情的话，每个人都可以很有效的降低出事率。保证自己的安全对己对人都是福分。

 

Distracted drivers are the leading cause of car crashes in the U.S., accounting for a much higher percentage of accidents than once thought, federal traffic-safety experts say in a new report.

Cellphones were found to be the most common driver distraction, but they weren't the leading distraction that causes accidents, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said. That honor goes to reaching for a moving object. Reading, applying makeup, eating, drinking, and playing with radios and CD players also distract drivers in many accidents.

All told, distracted drivers accounted for 80% of crashes and 65% of near-crashes, according to the results of a study conducted for the NHTSA by the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute in 2003 and 2004. Experts earlier estimated driver distraction accounted for about 25% of crashes.

Steve Jobs to 2005 Graduates: Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

In his commencement address at Stanford University in 2005, Steve Jobs, the CEO of both Apple and Pixar, told the audience three fascinating stories that happened in his life.

The first story is about how his experience in college affected his early career. An adopted child, Jobs went to college at the age of seventeen. He then had the chance of taking a calligraphy class, which sparked his design ideas that were later incorporated in the Macintosh, the operating system of Apple computers. It was not long before he found college uninteresting and decided to drop out in order to save his parents’ life savings from being spent on the expensive tuition. Jobs attributed his career success to his bold decisions of taking whatever classes he loved and dropping out of college.

His second story involves how he overcame a career crisis. At the age of thirty, Jobs lost his job because of his disagreement with the management. It was one of his most painful experiences. But this hardship did not make Jobs lose faith in what he loved and believed. “The only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did,” he told the audience. Years later, Jobs started another two companies, NeXT and Pixar, both of which became extremely successful. Through this dramatic story, he emphasized the importance of finding what one loves and not losing faith in what one believes.

The last story is about how he fought cancer and found the meaning of life. Diagnosed with cancer, Jobs was almost hopeless until he learned that the type of cancer he had was curable. He fortunately survived the cancer. Having been so close to death, he truly understood that life is too short to follow others’ footsteps. He encouraged the young graduates that they should be brave enough to reject dogma, be innovative to live a unique life, and not to “let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice, heart and intuition.” These messages were beautifully summarized in the end of his speech in one simple sentence quoted from a magazine:

“Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish”

            I personally found Jobs’ address truly motivating and thought provoking. His advice that “the only way to do great work is to love what you do” is exactly what I need. Being a graduate student studying economics, I sometimes find it difficult to have the motivation to conduct research. Now I understand the reason is that the research topics that I have undertaken doing are not what I am really interested in. I chose them, nevertheless, simply because they were popular topics. I followed the trend and got lost. To do great work I ought to find what I love.

Though inspired by his words, I am reluctant to agree with Jobs’ idea that dropping out of school is a better choice if one has not found school interesting. Like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs is probably a genius who can educate himself well. However, dropping out is not necessarily beneficial for most people. There is a huge opportunity cost. Especially in today’s increasingly competitive market, higher education is necessary for people to master the essential skills to succeed in the future.

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For the transcript of his speech, click this http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2005/june15/jobs-061505.html